qpAdm ancestry analysis

Price

from €39.99 to €69.99, one-time, depending on the depth tier you choose. No subscription.

Method

qpadm() from ADMIXTOOLS 2, run in R on our infrastructure

Reference panel

Allen Ancient DNA Resource (AADR) v66 — ~23,265 samples, ~6,015 population labels

Statistics reported

Model p-value; per-source weight, standard error and z-score; the right-population set used

Eras

Two — Hunter-Gatherer & Neolithic Farmer, and Classical Antiquity — across 34 curated populations

Accepted files

.txt, .csv or .zip raw-data exports up to 50 MB

Also included

Ancestry maps and server-rendered cinematic ancestry videos

Data location

European Union (Germany and Finland), under GDPR

Most consumer ancestry tools fit your sample to a set of reference populations and return whatever weights fit best. Those weights always exist, whether or not the model makes any sense — there is no output that says "this combination cannot have produced you".

qpAdm works differently. It operates on allele-frequency statistics against a set of outgroup populations, and it tests a model rather than merely fitting one. The p-value is the point: it is what allows a proposed ancestry model to be rejected. A standard error on each proportion tells you how tightly that number is pinned down, and a z-score tells you whether a source is contributing at all.

That is the entire reason this product costs more and takes longer than our Global25 analysis. You are paying for a model that could have failed and did not.

Every tier delivers the same report. What changes is the statistical bar the model must clear before we publish it — the model p-value, every source's z-score and every source's standard error — and, because a tighter bar takes more models to find, how many hours a human analyst spends on your order.

1. 
   Base€39.99

   A model that fits — the bar published papers use.

   p > 0.05 · |Z| > 2.5 · SE < 0.10

   ≈ a few hours of analyst time · 15–25 hand-built models

2. 
   Medium€49.99

   Above the paper standard — every source proven, every fit comfortably clear.

   p > 0.10 · |Z| > 3 · SE < 0.08

   ≈ about one working day of analyst time · 50–70 hand-built models

3. 
   Deep€59.99

   Wide margins on every number — a model that survives being pushed.

   p > 0.20 · |Z| > 4 · SE < 0.06

   ≈ several working days of analyst time · 80–120 hand-built models

4. 
   Perfect€69.99

   Nothing left to argue — the tightest model your DNA can support.

   p > 0.30 · |Z| > 5 · SE < 0.05

   ≈ a week or more of analyst time · 120–200 hand-built models

Three things are true of every tier. A tier is a target: we publish the deepest tier your DNA actually reaches, stamped on the report beside the tier you ordered. Deep and Perfect need a high-coverage kit — roughly 300,000 or more markers after merging — because standard error is set by your data far more than by our search. And higher tiers buy certainty, not more components: a source has to be measured well enough to clear the z-score gate, so the deepest models are often the simplest ones.

We built automated model rotation — the approach of screening many candidate source combinations and surfacing whichever reaches an acceptable p-value — and then removed it from the product. Measured against real targets it selected models that scored well and were wrong: with sources that carry the same ancestral stream, the search has enough freedom to shrink the residual while the weights drift into nonsense.

So a person does that step. Your model is selected, run and reviewed before it is published to your report. It is slower, and it is the reason the number you are given is worth reading.

Once your report is published, the Model Lab (a €10 one-time unlock on your report) puts the same engine in your hands: compose your own qpAdm models against your own merged dataset — your sample as the target, sources and outgroups chosen from the same panel your report used — and run up to 100 models per day. You get the real output, including the rejections; a model qpAdm refuses is a finding, not a bug.

Prefer your own toolchain? The same unlock includes the merged dataset itself — your kit combined with the AADR panel, in standard EIGENSTRAT format — ready to download.

You can try the formal machinery before buying anything. The AdmixTools 2 Lab runs real f-statistics, qpWave, qpAdm and admixture-graph fitting against a reference panel, free, in the browser — no R installation and no genotype panel to source. Expect rejections; that is the method working.

Understanding qpAdm explains how to read a p-value, a standard error and a z-score, why outgroup choice decides whether a model is worth anything, and what to do when one is rejected. qpAdm vs Global25 sets out when each method is the right instrument, and the glossary defines the vocabulary.

• 01

  Is this real qpAdm, or an approximation?

  It is real qpAdm. We run the qpadm() function from ADMIXTOOLS 2 — the same package used in published ancient-DNA research — against your genotypes merged with the Allen Ancient DNA Resource. It is not a coordinate-fitting method dressed up in qpAdm language.

• 02

  How is qpAdm different from Global25 and nMonte percentages?

  They answer different questions. Global25 and nMonte fit your coordinate to a weighted combination of reference coordinates, and will always return some percentages. qpAdm works from allele-frequency statistics and outgroups, and can reject a model outright: it returns a p-value that tells you whether the proposed ancestry model is compatible with the data at all. Percentages from a coordinate fit are estimates; qpAdm output is a statistical test.

• 03

  What do the four depth tiers change?

  Only the statistical bar the published model must clear — the model p-value, every source's z-score and every source's standard error — and therefore how long a human analyst searches for it. Base (€39.99) asks for p > 0.05, |Z| > 2.5 and SE < 0.10, the bar published papers use, and takes a few hours. Medium (€49.99) asks for p > 0.10, |Z| > 3 and SE < 0.08 — about a working day. Deep (€59.99) asks for p > 0.20, |Z| > 4 and SE < 0.06 — several working days of sweeping every source, proxy and outgroup set. Perfect (€69.99) asks for p > 0.30, |Z| > 5 and SE < 0.05 — a week or more. The report itself is identical at every tier.

• 04

  Why do the tiers cost what they cost?

  Because qpAdm is not a button. Each model is composed, run and audited by hand against the ancient reference panel, and a tighter bar means more models to build and more outgroup sets to re-test them on — roughly 15–25 models at Base, 50–70 at Medium, 80–120 at Deep and 120–200 at Perfect. You are paying for analyst hours, from a few at Base to a week or more at Perfect.

• 05

  Can every DNA kit reach Deep or Perfect?

  No. Standard error depends mostly on how many markers your kit shares with the ancient panel. Kits with roughly 300,000 or more markers after merging (23andMe v5, AncestryDNA, FamilyTreeDNA, LivingDNA) can reach SE < 0.06; MyHeritage and older chips usually cannot, however long we search. A tier is a target: we publish the deepest tier your DNA actually reaches, stamped on the report beside the tier you ordered, and you confirm that you understand this before buying Deep or Perfect. Higher tiers also buy certainty rather than more components — a source must be measured well enough to clear the z-score gate, so the deepest models are often the simplest.

• 06

  Which statistics do you actually show me?

  For each era you get the model's p-value, and for each source population its weight, its standard error and its z-score, alongside the set of right (outgroup) populations the model was run against. Those are the numbers needed to judge a model rather than just read it.

• 07

  Which reference dataset do you use?

  The Allen Ancient DNA Resource (AADR) v66 — roughly 23,265 samples across roughly 6,015 distinct population labels. We operate the merge ourselves: your file is converted, filtered of indels and strand-ambiguous SNPs, and intersected against the panel with Poseidon's trident before any model is run.

• 08

  Which files can I upload?

  A raw-data export from a consumer testing company — 23andMe, AncestryDNA, MyHeritage, FamilyTreeDNA and similar — as a .txt, .csv or .zip file up to 50 MB. We validate the file by its actual content rather than by vendor, so exports that follow the usual microarray text layout are accepted even when the company is not named here.

• 09

  Do I get results instantly?

  No, and deliberately not. Merging your genotypes against the AADR panel is a heavy job that runs on our own infrastructure, and your model is then built and checked by hand before it is published. A qpAdm report is reviewed work, not a page that renders the moment you pay.

• 10

  Can I verify the model myself?

  Yes, and the report is built so you can. Every qpAdm model publishes its p-value, the weight, standard error and z-score for each source population, and the full right (outgroup) set it was run against — all of them, behind a Show all control rather than a truncated sample. The right set is what decides whether a qpAdm model means anything, so withholding it would make the result unfalsifiable. With the panel version (AADR v66) and those inputs you have everything needed to re-run the model in ADMIXTOOLS 2 yourself.

• 11

  Why is a person involved at all?

  Because automated model search is the part of qpAdm that goes wrong. We built automated rotation, measured it, and removed it: rotating large numbers of candidate models has a high false-discovery rate, so the best-scoring model is frequently not the right one. Selecting and checking each model by hand is a deliberate design choice, not a missing feature.

• 12

  Can I run qpAdm myself?

  Yes — after your report is published. The Model Lab is a €10 one-time unlock on your report that lets you compose and run your own qpAdm models against your own merged dataset, with your sample as the target and up to 100 runs per rolling 24 hours. You choose the source and outgroup populations from the same merged panel your report was computed from, and you get the real statistics back: the p-value, weights, standard errors and z-scores. Expect rejections — qpAdm saying no to a model is the method working.

• 13

  Can I download the merged dataset itself?

  Yes — it is included in the same €10 Model Lab unlock. You get the exact merged genotype bundle your report was computed from — your kit combined with the AADR panel, in the standard EIGENSTRAT format (.geno/.snp/.ind) — ready for ADMIXTOOLS 2 or any compatible toolchain on your own machine. It is a multi-gigabyte archive; download links are short-lived and downloads are metered.

• 14

  Where is my data stored?

  On EU infrastructure, in Germany and Finland, under GDPR. Your raw file is processed only for your own analysis, you can delete it at any time, and full account deletion and data export are self-service.